Nigerians headed to the polls to elect the President, Vice President and members of the Senate and House of Representatives, on 25 February. Days later, and despite still having over 28,000 polling units still unaccounted for,[1] the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, the winner with over 36% of the total votes, followed by Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) who received 29% of the votes and Peter Obi from the Labour Party(LP) with 25% who won in both Lagos and Abuja.[2]
Less than 25 million Nigerians, out of more than 93 million registered voters, turned out to cast their votes. Only around nine million voted for Tinubu, who will now govern over 220 Nigerians.[3] The Labour Party called the election a “sham”[4] and indicated they would legally challenge the result.[5]
Various irregularities called into question the legitimacy of the results. A large number of polling units remained unaccounted for at the time the announcement was made, although the INEC insists these results were unable to change the outcome.[6] While many Nigerians were able to cast their votes undisturbed, logistical failures and delays were common and in some states such as Lagos, Rivers, Kogi, Edo and Imo violent incidents where armed men attacked civilians and poll workers and voting materials were destroyed were reported.[7] The police officers at polling units were not able to contain the situation as they were unarmed.[8] At least 14 journalists and media workers covering the elections were detained, harassed, or attacked.[9] HumAngleMedia reported high levels of violence in areas where the LP was popular.[10] The results at multiple polling units were cancelled due to such events.[11]
The lead up to the election was also plagued by violence and insecurity, hate speech was utilised by candidates and fake news was shared on social media.[12] Violence involving political parties was highest in southern states where the competition between APC and PDP has occasionally turned violent.[13]
Civil society organisations had called for the Nigerian government to take measures to ensure safe elections[14] and for the international community to pay close attention to the elections and ensure impartial media focus.[15]
Post-election violence was also reported. Residents were threatened at their workplace for not having voted for APC in Lagos state.[16] There were also reports of violent events in Kano State where an INEC office was burned down and two people were killed. Fears were expressed that worse violations would occur in the March gubernatorial elections.[17]
Observer missions, including the International Republican Institute (IRI) and National Democratic Institute (NDI) Joint Election Observation Mission (IEOM) reported challenges with the electronic transfer of the results and said that the “inadequate communication and lack of transparency” by INEC “created confusion and eroded voters’ trust.”[18] The EU election observation mission (EU EOM) also noted that the lack of transparency and operational failures reduced Nigerian’s trust in the process.[19]
The Commonwealth Observer Group noted that although an overall peaceful process, there were “inconsistencies in procedures, particularly in the positioning of some polling booths which compromised the secrecy of the ballot as well as lack of advance voting for those deployed on election day.”[20] The Election Observation Missions of the Commission of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Africa Union (AU) reported signs of increasing tension following INEC’s preliminary results, and called for a de-escalation.[21]
The US Secretary of State congratulated the president-elect and also noted Nigerians’ frustration with the electoral process, condemning attacks on media on election day,[22] however some US officials questioned the congratulatory message delivered as observer missions noted irregularities in the process and fearing it could undermine any future challenges to the results.[23]
Meanwhile, in north-eastern Nigeria, clashes between Jamatu Ahli Al–Sunna lil Da’wa Wal Jihad (JAS), a faction of Boko Haram, and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) have been taking place for the last few months, causing casualties and fighters to surrender on both sides. This has proven beneficial for the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) who has reported significant gains.[24]
[1] Daily Post, “Nigeria election: INEC yet to upload 28,000 results after declaring Tinubu winner,” 2 March 2023, https://dailypost.ng/2023/03/02/nigeria-election-inec-yet-to-upload-28000-results-after-declaring-tinubu-winner/
[2] Civichive, 2023 Presidential Results, https://liveresults.civichive.org/presidential/2023 (checked 01 March 2023)
[3] Premium time, “ANALYSIS: Trend of low voter turnout continues in Nigerian elections,” 5 March 2023, https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/586193-analysis-trend-of-low-voter-turnout-continues-in-nigerian-elections.html
[4] NPR, “Nigeria’s opposition parties call elections a ‘sham’ and demand a new vote,” 28 February 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/02/28/1160062514/nigeria-election-opposition-parties-call-sham
[5] CNN, “Opposition vows challenge as Tinubu wins Nigerian presidency,” 2 March 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/28/africa/nigeria-presidential-election-result-intl-hnk/index.html
[6] Premium Times, “INEC declares APC’s Bola Tinubu winner of Nigeria’s presidential election,” 1 March 2023, https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/585443-breaking-inec-declares-apcs-bola-tinubu-winner-of-nigerias-presidential-election.html
[7] Human Rights Watch, “Nigeria’s Elections Remain Risky for Many Citizens,” 27 February 2023, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/27/nigerias-elections-remain-risky-many-citizens
[8] Human Rights Watch, “Nigeria’s Elections Remain Risky for Many Citizens,” 27 February 2023, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/27/nigerias-elections-remain-risky-many-citizens
[9] Committee to Protect Journalists, “At least 14 journalists detained, attacked, or harassed covering Nigeria’s election,” 27 February 2023, https://cpj.org/2023/02/at-least-14-journalists-detained-attacked-or-harassed-covering-nigerias-election/
[10] Humangle, “Nigeria Elections 2023: A Look Ahead To The Gubernatorial Polls,” 3 March 2023, https://humanglemedia.com/nigeria-elections-2023-a-look-ahead-to-the-gubernatorial-polls/
[11] Al Jazeera, “How violence robs Nigerians of their votes,” 2 March 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/2/how-violence-robs-nigerians-of-their-votes
[12] Incident Centre for Election Atrocities, Monthly tracking of hate speech and election atrocities in Nigeria, January 2023, https://www.nigeriamourns.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ICEA-report-JANUARY-2023-1.pdf
[13] ACLED, Regional Overview Africa February 2023, 3 March 2023, https://acleddata.com/2023/03/03/regional-overview-africa-february-2023/
[14] Crisis Group, “Mitigating Risks of Violence in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections,” 10 February 2023, https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/311-mitigating-risks-violence-nigerias-2023-elections and Human Rights Watch, “Nigeria: Impunity, Insecurity Threaten Elections,” 6 February 2023, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/06/nigeria-impunity-insecurity-threaten-elections
[15] Atrocities Watch Africa, “Statement: Risk of increased violence in Nigeria’s 2023 elections,” 21 February 2023,https://atrocitieswatch.org/publications/statement-risk-of-increased-violence-in-nigerias-2023-elections/
[16] Humangle, “Nigeria Elections 2023: A Look Ahead To The Gubernatorial Polls,” 3 March 2023, https://humanglemedia.com/nigeria-elections-2023-a-look-ahead-to-the-gubernatorial-polls/
[17] Humangle, “Nigeria Elections 2023: A Look Ahead To The Gubernatorial Polls,” 3 March 2023, https://humanglemedia.com/nigeria-elections-2023-a-look-ahead-to-the-gubernatorial-polls/
[18] Daily Post, “NEWSNigeria elections below expectations, INEC lacked transparency – NDI/IRI observers,” 27 February 2023, https://dailypost.ng/2023/02/27/nigeria-elections-below-expectations-inec-lacked-transparency-ndi-iri-observers/
[19] European Union Election Observation Mission Nigeria 2023, First Preliminary Statement – Elections held on schedule, but lack of transparency and operational failures reduced trust in the process and challenged the right to vote, 27 February 2023, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eom-nigeria-2023/first-preliminary-statement-elections-held-schedule-lack-transparency-and_en?s=410279
[20] The Commonwealth, Commonwealth observers say Nigeria’s 2023 elections ‘largely peaceful’ with room for improvement, 27 February 2023, https://thecommonwealth.org/news/commonwealth-observers-say-nigerias-2023-elections-largely-peaceful
[21] African Union, Election Observation Missions of the Commission of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Africa Union (AU), 1 March 2023, https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20230301/joint-statement-post-electoral-phase-25th-february-2023-nigerian-general
[22] US Department of State, 2023 Presidential Election Results in Nigeria, 1 March 2023, https://www.state.gov/2023-presidential-election-results-in-nigeria/
[23] Foreign Policy, “U.S. Hailed Nigeria Election Results While Election Observers Cried Foul,” 6 March 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/06/nigeria-elections-us-biden-democracy-africa-tinubu/
[24] African Arguments, “Inside the insurgency in northeastern Nigeria,” 22 February 2022, https://africanarguments.org/2023/02/inside-the-insurgency-in-northeastern-nigeria/
